Saturday, January 16, 2016

Is Eating a Cinnamon Roll Irrational?

by Tyler Kubik

Mises Review

January 14, 2015

The literature on market imperfection and market failure is voluminous, ever-growing, and filled with Nobel laureates. Identify a new source or instance of market “failure,” and you’re likely to win a Nobel Prize, or so it seems.

Phishing for Phools: The Economics of Manipulation and Deception, by Nobel Laureates George A. Akerlof and Robert J. Shiller, presents the thesis that we are overly confident in unregulated markets and that entrepreneurs accrue profit by preying on hapless consumers, exploiting “our weakness in knowing what we really want” through the market’s tendency “to spawn manipulation and deception.” Mavens of manipulation themselves, Akerlof and Shiller claim many, if not most people — especially the poor — are irrationally exuberant and are induced into buying things they really do not want. How do they know what the consumer really wants, one might ask? The answer is that anything the authors would not do themselves is ipso facto not in the best interest of the consumer. In fact, it is something that “no one could possibly want.”

We’ll Decide What’s Best For You

Their opening chapter is an exercise in convoluted methodology. In it, Akerlof and Shiller obliterate any distinction between adroit entrepreneurship/marketing and deception/fraud. The most fundamental problem, however, is that Akerlof and Shiller think that what people really want is what is (objectively) good for them. They refuse to recognize that even if consumers were aware of the costs of eating Cinnabon — their bête noire in the opening chapter — and consuming a high calorie meal devoid of nutrients, they still might choose to eat Cinnabon. In their paternalist fervor, they cannot fathom that some people, in some places, at some times, might be willing to make such a trade off.

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Friday, January 8, 2016

How Facebook Makes Us Dumber

by Cass Sunstein

Bloomberg

January 8, 2015

Why does misinformation spread so quickly on the social media? Why doesn’t it get corrected? When the truth is so easy to find, why do people accept falsehoods?

A new study focusing on Facebook users provides strong evidence that the explanation is confirmation bias: people’s tendency to seek out information that confirms their beliefs, and to ignore contrary information.

Confirmation bias turns out to play a pivotal role in the creation of online echo chambers. This finding bears on a wide range of issues, including the current presidential campaign, the acceptance of conspiracy theories and competing positions in international disputes.

The new study, led by Michela Del Vicario of Italy’s Laboratory of Computational Social Science, explores the behavior of Facebook users from 2010 to 2014. One of the study’s goals was to test a question that continues to be sharply disputed: When people are online, do they encounter opposing views, or do they create the virtual equivalent of gated communities?

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Read the study (PDF)